Table of Contents
Is Economic Growth the Only Answer
One of the speakers at the World Economic Forum 2024, who seemed to be making sense, at least to me, was Sandrine Dixon-Decleve (Club of Rome and Earth4all). She highlighted what I believe is a key issue that is going to haunt us for years to come: the huge income inequalities that exist within countries both developed and developing. This coupled with huge inequalities across countries between developing countries and developed ones, raises serious questions about the wisdom of generations of economic thought leaders whose policies have been followed and are continuing to be followed. She highlighted how we have come to accept the obscene exorbitant pay divide between chief executives and workers as an example of income inequality. In the last few years, a new billionaire is minted every thirty hours but 1.7 billion workers found inflation outpacing wages. Is it any surprise that 800 million Indians are living on government dole? For the first time in many years, globally, real wages dropped by 0.9% in 2022-23. In India, the drop during 20-21 was 2.4%, and 0.2% in 21-22. As billionaires are being minted at one end of the spectrum; 1.1 thousand if the rate of production suggested is correct; at the other end of the spectrum 1.7 billion have seen real wage decline. The spectrum runs from rosy to black with nothing in between.
Why are the salaries of CEOs so out of proportion to salaries at lower levels in a company? The answer to that is complex and covers many dimensions. Most of the corporations with very high salaries are usually public corporations governed by a modicum of shareholder democracy. Shareholders are desirous of increases in share price and the consequent value creation. In as much as they are sharing a part of the wealth created for them with the person creating the wealth the salary of the CEO is a modest fraction. As market forces apply to jobs at every level and as levels go down wages are not set by value creation but by demand and supply of labour. At the level of the CEO, the market is very small, differentiated, and fraught with information asymmetry; consequently, the opportunity for extra-normal profits is high. At the level of the janitor, the market is large and undifferentiated with supply usually exceeding demand. As long as the accepted economic model is growth, growth, and more growth this structure will continue to prevail.
Economists will have us understand that as a country's economy grows, that growth will trickle down to the population and all will share in the wealth that is created. Decades of following neo-liberal economic policies do not seem to have helped the less privileged in society on the contrary their numbers have grown. It is obvious that there is no drip let alone a trickle. The question that we need to ask ourselves is whether growing faster and bigger at the things that we do is the only answer for the human race.
I would divide goods into essentials, good to have, and luxuries. Farmers' agitations around the world are an indication that in the world of today, essentials are unimportant. All products that are manufactured whether essential or luxury consume energy and water not to mention elements from under the earth's surface that emerge and join us on the surface for the next million years. A vicious cycle has emerged - we spend more and more of rare resources to manufacture goods and services that are consumed by a small section of the population - the ultra-rich wannabees. As purchasing power moves from the general population to those richer in society the demand for luxury goods rises while essentials drop. Wages and salaries in those segments rise while they stagnate or decline in sectors that are stagnant or declining. This slippery slope leads to a large section of the population sliding further and further into economic stagnation or even distress. As a people we have to ask ourselves the question do I need that twentieth shirt or that wonderful iPhone that allows me to message god in changing colours? Can I make my car last for twenty years? If do not answer no to the first two and yes to the third as a race we may not be around after 2050.
We need a greater focus on the distribution of well-being rather than a mad scramble for growth. We need a greater focus on sustainability and less on extractive exploitation of natural habitat and resources all in the name of growth. Let us be very clear all this growth that economists and politicians tout is all for a small segment of the population the masses will like animals (Animal Farm), stand at the window and look into the house and watch humans and pigs feasting and drinking.
Requiem to the Last Mango of the Season
I ate the last mango of the season yesterday. It was a Dasheri from UP or so the vendor said. It had the flavour but not quite the size or the texture of the mangoes I had eaten in the 60s and 70s. Mango, other than Alphonso, is not a fruit that travels well, and sitting in Bangalore 2000 km away from UP, one must make accommodations.
Mango is a popular fruit in the Sub-continent and as any sub-continental chauvinist will tell you the mangoes of the sub-continent are the best in the world. Unlike the health-conscious West, Indians like their fruits and sweets very sweet.
In addition to the syrupy sweetness another factor that keeps this fruit away from Western palates is the difficulty of eating the fruit without engaging your hands. There is no way of eating a mango except with bare hands, both. The fruit is full of juice, and you are sure to have a trickle running down to your elbow. As you scrape the mango from the skin with your teeth you will eventually get an orange-yellow moustache and if you are lucky a small orange goatee. The sophisticated eat a mango scrapping the pulp from the skin with a spoon missing out on the total pleasure of eating a mango. In addition, the pleasure of eating the flesh off the stone and then scrapping the last of the mango from the stone with one's teeth, tongue and lips is a pleasure that can only be savoured, on a hot May afternoon in the Gangetic plains, under a creaky fan swinging and rotating at a speed which threatens to launch it against the walls.
It was when I was a young child of 8 or 9 that I was introduced to the Malda mango as it is known in Bihar and Bengal. The best among the Malda is the Dudhiya Malda and the best place from where it comes is Digha near Patna. The Khurji Hospital in Patna, a missionary hospital, had some of the best mango orchards on its grounds. In the mid-sixties, one could buy a hundred Dudhiya mangoes for about Rs.20. They would be plucked directly from the tree in a manner such that they never hit the ground. The original hand-picked fruit. The top part of the mango was often ash green and the fragrance of the mangoes ripening permeated the whole house. Mangoes would be consumed in large quantities and three to four visits to Digha were common during the season and purchases made ill the price reached about Rs. 40 to 50 for a hundred when my parents would call a halt to the mango orgy.
Patna was blessed with a long mango season which followed the Litchi season. While those in UP and Delhi would swear by the Dehradun Litchis those who have tasted Litchis from Muzaffarpur would vouch that they are a shade superior; the fragrance of rose lingering on even after the fruit has reached the stomach.
The mango season started at the end of April or early May with the arrival of the Bumbai mango or the Bombaya as it was then called in Patna. It was a nice green mango that would soon be eclipsed by the Dudhiya malda which followed a week or so later. The Malda overshadowed the Dasheri in Patna.
The season was long and would end in July with Sukul and Sipia the last of the illustrious mangos. A little bit like the Mughal empire the last of the mangoes would be pale shadows of those that preceded them but were emperors in their own right. Two other mangoes must be mentioned they are Jardalu of Bhagalpur and the Chaunsa of Buxar. Jardalu is a uniquely fragrant mango that is delightful to smell and great to eat. The Chaunsa is more widely grown in India. Legend has it that Sher Shah Suri while commemorating his victory over Humayun at Chaunsa, Bihar named his favourite mango Chaunsa.
In recent times developments in preservation and transportation have made mangoes available to the wide world. The GI tag has also made them more attractive to the cognoscenti. That said the method of enjoying them has not changed and is an acquired art.
The death of tolerance, decency and wit.
On opening the newspaper, one is struck by the intemperate language and the absence of decency in political debate. Sledging once considered unacceptable but now has become a weapon in the armoury of all captains along with their lethal fast bowlers and crafty spinners. Saurav Ganguly could well be credited with popularising sledging. Sledging has come to stay in politics with intemperate statements by ministers and politicians taking centre stage in our newspapers. Not a day goes by without some statement or the other jarring our sensibilities.
One important aspect is the continuous need to play a tune that is acceptable to the vote bank of the politician. Across the seas one sees Donald Trump do just that, play a tune that is music to the ears of conservative WASPs usually 40+ and other coloured skinned pretenders to the WASP title. In a polarised political environment, there is little to woo non-supporters. That is very much the case in India. The political battle lines are drawn, and each party tries to play the tune that appeals to their vote bank. The expectations of the vote bank are similar to the expectation of Indian audiences to popular cinema that the hero will abuse and beat the villain into submission. There are no shades of grey just black and white. What is jarring to the sensibilities is the language that is used across the board. The Republican party which has effectively followed a policy of polarisation and intolerance since the late 70s has replicated the Indian model in the US. A study in 2017 by Weber Shandwick showed that 72% of Americans view today's American political world as uncivil.
There are possible explanations. One is that our communication has become more direct, email, WhatsApp and other social media have contributed. The second is the loss of innocence, many crass words have become nouns, verbs etc. of choice in describing situations and people. The third is that politicians have accepted that their constituents expect them to push the envelope of crudeness.
On another note, one is saddened by the death of wit and repartee in political debates. The last Indian MP who could do that effectively may have been Sushma Swaraj. For some of us born in the middle of the last century Piloo Mody, Ram Manohar Lohia and Atal Bihar Vajpayee stood out as witty debaters in Parliament. Nehru himself could dish out a sharp repartee and take a punch or two on the chin. Politicians of that era could dish out and take caustic comments. The comments while sharp and witty were not abusive. Nehru, Patel and Ambedkar had serious differences, among themselves, with colleagues and opponents. These were argued out rationally, intellectually and in civilised language. Arguments were made to convince the other side not to humiliate them or show disrespect. In politics through up to the 60s and 70s banter and repartee was the rapier that erudite politicians used to win arguments not the near abusive club.
How do we react to disasters?
There is no doubt that the horrific crash of two super-fast passenger trains and one goods train in Orissa is a tragedy of immense proportions. The loss of life and the terrible injuries that are the consequences of such accidents will bring sorrow and hardship to a number of families and any amount of compensation will not make up for those losses. That said society today, the world over, has little alternative to providing some form of financial compensation. I am more intrigued by the way we react as human beings to man-made disasters. The first reaction is to look for conspiracy theories. To find a perpetrator whose negligence or complicity would have led to the accident. In the toxic environment that we live in the search for the perpetrator is widened and rumors start floating. A part of the problem is in ourselves. In the era where news channels vie for mind-space the more outlandish the suggestion the higher the rating. If the suggestion meets with one of the worldviews that we hold as a member of an imagined community the greater the reinforcement and soon it snowballs into truth. The way we react to disasters tells a lot about the way we think and the way we are.
Trying to unravel a train or air accident is a complex job that requires multiple agencies many of which have specialised technical knowledge. More often than not they have differing jurisdictions not to mention that some may have vested interests in the outcome of the investigation. In addition, specialised agencies' analysis of facts is often coloured by their experience, training, and knowledge not to mention their own little hobby horses. The Balasore accident, if the newspapers are right, is going to be investigated by CBI. On reading that news I was reminded of two disaster investigations, one fictional and the other real.
Many decades ago, I read a fascinating book "The Andomeda Strain" the 1969 novel by Michael Crichton. The story is about a deadly microorganism brought back from space by a satellite that has fallen from its orbit. It lands in Arizona and the germ immediately kills everyone except a small baby and an old man. A multi-disciplinary team of scientists is dispatched to understand what happened. The leader of the team is not the seniormost scientist but a surgeon who also happens to be a bachelor. The leader is charged with the task of destroying himself and the team in case the organism gets out of hand. Michael Crichton spends a fair deal of pages explaining why a bachelor surgeon was selected to be the ultimate team leader. One aspect stands out and that is the choice of a surgeon in a team of a pathologist, a microbiologist, and a bacteriologist. The anthropologist having dropped out due to acute appendicitis. To boot the surgeon had the ultimate responsibility to disarm the nuclear device in case the device is armed by the organism escaping. The point is that leaders of disaster analysis teams are often chosen on their ability to evaluate evidence in a quasi-judicial role. In this case the analysis had to be fast and a decision taken quickly. Surgeon are trained by their experience to do just that.
This brings me to an interesting case I read many years ago. Air New Zealand has a sightseeing flight over the Antarctic, I think it is still there. In 1979 on 28 November the flight crashed into Mount Erebus killing all 237 passengers and 20 crew. The initial investigation concluded that it was a pilot error but a public outcry led to the establishment of a commission presided over by a Judge. The point is that judges may have no knowledge of the technical issues at hand, but they have the expertise to evaluate evidence and cull out a reasonable understanding from a heap of evidence some of which are contradictory and some irrelevant. The second enquiry cleared the crew of blame identifying "alteration of the flight plan waypoint coordinates in the ground navigation computer without advising the crew."
A disaster manmade or natural has a long-term impact on the prosperity of families, individuals, and the country. Whilepropsperity of a country declines the GDP rises as reconstruction starts. There are always two parts to any investigation the short-term of understanding of causes and apportioning blame, if required. The second is the longer-term question of whether such disasters can be avoided in the future. The second, though never visible is as, if not more important than the first.
Interesting and suddenly relevant words
I came across this interesting post on Instagram (the.language.nerds) and thought some of these words of a bygone era are so relevant today. Fudgel a word of the 18th century means "Pretending to work while actually doing nothing". I now realise that I have been fudgeling for a very long time. Not sure whether fudgeling is a word. Ultracrepidarian (19th Century "Somebody who gives opinions on subjects they know nothing about") is another lovely word so relevant today. Look at all the WhatsApp posts in groups you are members of, or even look at this blog. Kakistocracy (19th century "Government by the least qualified or worst people"). Take a globe and rotate it where-ever it stops you have a 90% chance of seeing a Kakistocracy in action unless it stops on water of which the probability is high. Uhtceare (old English- " Lying awake and worrying about the day ahead") I used to do that a lot but have now outsourced the task to my wife.
Football, the World Cup 2022 – Totalitarianism in a Proletarian Game.
As write this, the last match of the World Cup 2022 – the final between Argentina and France is over. The two heroes among many have played stellar roles for their respective teams. The match had many a twist and turn and the final score line before the Russian roulette of penalty kicks 3-3 does not quite reflect the advantage that Argentina had for much of the match. Finally, they prevailed in the penalty shoot-out for a well-deserved victory.
This World Cup is unique in many ways it is held in a country that has strict rules of behaviour in both public and private spaces. It is also not quite the kind of place one would go as a tourist under normal circumstances. That may not be totally a bad thing considering that football fans can be quite boisterous. It is a rare World Cup in Asia, a continent not known for flooding the world arena with football champions. As pointed out by an article in the Economist more and more world sports championships are staged in countries with totalitarian regimes where the question of costs and benefits are not well articulated for obvious reasons. It appears that returns on investments in such championships, particularly where infrastructure is built specifically for the championship the returns on such investments are minuscule.
Table 1: Economic and Human Development Indices of World Cup Continents
|
|
Democracy Index |
GDP/capita $ (2017) |
Wealth Inequality highr is worse |
Human Freedom Index |
No of countries |
AFRICA |
5.1 | 2,278 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 5 |
ASIA |
4.8 |
31,162 | 0.4 | 6.6 |
5 |
Asia w/o Japan and Korea |
2.6 |
29,213 | 0.5 | 5.3 |
3 |
AUSTRALIA |
8.9 |
53,841 | 0.3 | 8.8 |
1 |
EUROPE |
7.9 |
36,522 | 0.3 | 8.6 |
13 |
NORTH AMERICA |
7.6 | 31,394 | 0.4 | 8.2 |
4 |
SOUTH AMERICA |
7.1 |
11,736 | 0.5 | 7.6 |
4 |
The data that emerges about the teams that are playing in the current championship makes for interesting reading. I tried to look at four indicators – Democracy Index; GDP per capita in US$; wealth inequality through the Gini coefficient and the human freedom index. On all indices, Australia scores the highest of any continent. It is possibly a bit unfair since it is practically a continent by itself.
Regarding representation, Africa and Asia had five countries each, and North and South America had four countries each. Considering the amount of football that is played in South America, and that too at a high standard, one cannot help but feel that they possibly need better representation. Europe the global football superpower has thirteen slots and Australia the continent dominated by one country has one.
In Asia, two countries Japan and South Korea have a per capita GDP that is close to and even surpasses many in Europe. They also pull up the democracy index and other social indicators to respectable levels.
On the economic dimension, Africa has far outperformed its economic potential. It has a GDP that is about 1/15th of its nearest rival Asia without Japan and Korea yet performed as creditably, purely on a “bang for the buck” consideration they were very successful. It is interesting to speculate what they could be capable of if they had the capacity to invest in sports infrastructure. On the democracy dimension, they score better than all of Asia as well as Asia without Japan and South Korea. One could, therefore, speculate that the economic allocation of GDP would be less to showcase games like football and more to issues that are of wider social benefit.
The powerhouses of football, Europe, and South America, fare equally well on the Democracy index and Human freedom index. On per capita GDP South America is only a third of its European and North American rivals. The wealth inequality index is higher in South America and the democracy index is lower. The experience of South America and Africa may seem to suggest that while economic resources for the sport may be important unlike many other sports economics has a lower impact on performance. Football possibly deserves the reputation of being a truly proletarian game.
Are We Heading for Another World War or A New World Order
The last few weeks have been dismal for those who look at the world beyond their backyard. The war in Ukraine appears to be escalating with no end in sight. Russia has unleashed a war on Ukraine using the age-old accusation that Russia had been provoked and it is in the interest of their security. China usually cries hoarse about invasions and colonialism claiming to have been a victim a hundred years ago. In this war, they have offered complete support to the Russians using their veto to scuttle any pathetic effort that the Western permanent members may have put together to stop the war.
The US is unravelling and neither political party seems to have either the vision or credibility to provide leadership to their own country let alone the world. The Republican party looks like a bunch of antediluvians, and racist plutocrats while the Democratic party looks a lot like a bunch of clueless confused people who never expected to be in any position of authority.
The UK Government with Liz Truss at the helm looks more fragile than a soap bubble and if some analysts are to be believed, the life of the current Government may be just as long as that. With four Prime Ministers in the last eight years, the stability is close to that of Italy.
Most major European countries are looking inwards, fighting inflation, and looking to shore up energy sources. The energy problem is a direct fallout of the invasion of Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has not been a walkover for what all of us imagined would be far superior Russian forces. In that, some of us forgot the lessons of history – Vietnam a smaller and economically weaker country was able to resist the mightiest in the world and finally win. The war dragging on and victory becoming hard to come by would be demoralising for the armed forces and politically difficult for the leadership. This could escalate the war into one we are seeing now – the use of a cluster of what is called “farting,” drones from Iran for creating terror. This will invariably mean attacks on non-military targets which are banned by various conventions and treaties. The next step which is now being talked about will be the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Tactical nuclear weapons by definition range from 0.1-kilo tons to about 50-kilo tons. Strategic nuclear weapons are 100-kilo tons. For the un-initiated a kilo ton is equivalent to 1000 tons of TNT. It is generally believed that the warhead of choice would be a 1 KT device (artillery shell, land mine, small missile, etc). Let us look at the devastation. (Source: “Nuclear Weapon Detonation” Fact Sheet 320-088 dated July 2002 State Department of Health Washington.)
- The air blast which is common to conventional bombs will result in 50% mortality within a radius of 300 yards.
- The fireball will ignite secondary materials far from the site. In addition, the intense light could cause blindness. 50% mortality due to burns can be expected in a radius of 700 yards.
- Initial radiation will cause 50% mortality within a radius of 880 yards.
- Ground shock equivalent to a large, localised earthquake would also occur.
- Secondary radiation will cause 50% mortality in a range of 6,000 yards. These distances could be greater or smaller depending on wind and weather conditions.
It is quite evident that any use of tactical nuclear weapons will result in substantial civilian casualties. In addition, Russia may consider power stations, railway stations, and arterial roads as strategic assets deserving of tactical nuclear bombs. Russia has already started attacking power stations with conventional bombs loaded on Iranian drones.
We are today living in a world that resembles a person plagued with bipolar disorder. Politically we are becoming insular. Economically we are becoming interdependent.
Trade in goods and services covers almost all countries. Some have mineral wealth that others need, some have manufactured goods some have the labour to export, and others have the technology and financial capabilities. One must also not forget the arms trade which funds the coffers of the developed nations. The greatest integration is in the financial markets where countries hold each other’s sovereign bonds and have equity investments in each other’s corporations. This intertwining is difficult to unwind quickly and offers a unique opportunity for brinkmanship. One can push a political agenda militarily up to a point if the leader has nerves or is delusional, knowing that the economic relationships will ensure a muted or disunited response. This is what Putin is relying on. The problem with brinkmanship is that one often does not know where the brink is and that could plunge the world into wider crises. As with all wars, it will be the poorest people in countries around the world who will suffer.
As of now, all that we can hope for is that sense will prevail but that seems to be quite distant at this stage.
Uber Boats in Bangalore
Not really but there may come a day when that may be a reality. We have had incessant rain in Bangalore over the last 2 weeks. The weathermen are predicting two more months of heavy rain. Many low-lying areas in the city have been inundated and become inaccessible to normal modes of transportation. Is this a result of climate change? One does not know. As a lay observer, a few observations stand out – the shift of the start of the monsoon, heavy rainfall in some areas with drought in others. Around the globe, we hear of extreme weather conditions, heatwaves in Europe and the United States, forest fires in Australia, and so on. As politicians and industry leaders debate and discuss the existence or non-existence of climate change one is left with a feeling that we have reached a state of paralysis in our decision-making regarding models of human development.
There are two powerful strands of human thought that have driven the way we have engaged with our world. A scientific temperament that believes that nothing is impossible and an economic model that is built on the premise that wants are unlimited and an invisible hand (unobservable market forces) will help demand and supply of goods to reach equilibrium. That hand will also guide economic and technological development for the good of the larger population. Even the Marxian model adopted for a time by Russia and China does not eschew the need for equilibrium but replaces the invisible hand with the heavy hand of the state.
Manufacturers of mobiles, automobiles, garments, fashion accessories and so on all understand the way to create a need is through a consumer’s eyes, ears, and, as scientists are now discovering, through negative psychopathology. What is undeniable is that many of the wants are created by subtle suggestions to our greed with little thought to our needs. Very soon the want becomes a need. It is inescapable that wants and needs are not uniform across the human spectrum. Clever advertising has convinced me to add to my already overloaded T-shirt collection and boom I have consumed 2,700 litres of water. I drink about 2 liters of water a day and there I have consumed 3.70 years’ supply of an essential life-giving ingredient for a not-so-essential garment only because it looked good in a photograph or in the store window. Per capita water consumption data is interesting. While the US is by far the largest in per capita consumption the UK is only marginally more than India or China. Much of the water is used for industrial purposes and quite obviously the purpose for which water is used will affect the per capita consumption pattern.
The energy footprint is more depressing. US annual consumption of energy (2020) is 77,574 kWh(63,130 from fossil fuels). The UK 29,239 (22,303) China 30,322 (26,081) and India 7,063 (6,326). Over the 4 decades since 1980 global energy consumption has doubled.
What is becoming increasingly evident is that models of development that are based on rapid industrialization, and an ever-increasing cycle of consumption are unsustainable. Unfortunately, the models in place are all based on increasing production and growing consumption with the resultant exploitation of natural resources. The current per capita GDP of India is $2,520 while that of the UK is $49,760 and Portugal is $24,500. To achieve the level of development of Portugal using current methods will imply increasing our energy consumption by 10 times. The strain that such an increase will place on non-renewable resources is unimaginable. China ($14,100) only needs to double its per capita GDP but the consumption of energy is going to be catastrophic for the environment.
An important aspect to consider is the rather skewed level of development in a country like India. The Gini coefficient at 47.1% (2018) has risen over the years from 35.7% in 2011. It is quite evident that the economic miracle that we all beat our chests about has escaped a significant section of the population. The bottom 20% of the population has about 8.1% of the income. The bottom 40% gets about a fifth of the National income (19.8%). The bottom 60% of the population gets 35% of the national income while the top 20% gets 44.4% of the national income. Wealth inequality is a lot better with the Gini index at 35.7% being better than the US at 41.4% and quite similar to UK, Australia, and China.
Choosing the trajectory of economic growth is not really the problem of choice for any one country but is a collective concern. Every country will have to move away from a techno-economic model based on conquering nature on the one hand and converting wants into needs on the other. If we survive a few hundred years future generations will wonder how highly intelligent people ate through the resources of the earth with such rapidity and in such an unsustainable manner.
Zindagi ke Saath bhi Zindagi ke Baad bhi
Zindagi ke Saath bhi and Zindagi ke baad bhi ((With you in life and death) is the blurb in the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) banner. LIC, as most Indians know, is the largest life insurance company with a market share of 64.1% (2022) and a globally unparalleled ROE of 82%. It must rank as one of the most trusted insurance companies in the world. This, however, is not about LIC but about the Income Tax department which is also as it turns out a fiend in life and death. This friend is different it is one of those who takes, unlike the LIC which claims, and rightly so, gives.
My father passed away in 2012. He was to the best of my knowledge very meticulous in his tax payments, using a reputed accounting firm in his retirement years to help compute his taxes. The other day my tax advisor received an email from the IT department with demands against my father dating back to 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2012. This is admirable since my tax advisor was unknown to my father during his lifetime. The demands except for 2012 (Rs.17,050) are three-digit numbers ranging from Rs141 to Rs.972. Considering that it would be more expensive to search and find documents, pertaining to a period more than a decade ago.
A fascinating read on Education
I have chanced upon an article by David Orr http://www.kohalacenter.org/teachertraining/pdf/What_is_Education_For.pdf It is a short and excellent article on what ails modern education. The thoughts that struck me were the following - "that ignorance is a solvable problem is a myth" and "the purpose of education is to give you upward mobility and success".
The Death of Truth
The advent of the internet and the ubiquitous mobile phone was a severe malady that killed Truth. Truth is mourned by its close relatives' Discretion, Integrity, and Commonsense, who are similarly afflicted and awaiting death. Nevertheless, Truth was widespread until recently and was found worldwide except among politicians, TV anchors, and advertising executives.
When people first started writing, that art was restricted to a few. A writer would have to spend hours using a quill and inkpot writing in longhand without the benefit of dictation software and autocorrect. This was deterrent enough, not to mention that most of us were unlettered in those days. Consequently, the urge to write had to be strong. The writer needed something interesting and beautiful to say to attract a few readers' attention – illiteracy helping match supply and demand.
Over the years, as we moved from pen to typewriter to the keyboard, the facility in writing increased, as did the number of writers. The advent of the World Wide Web and Google made it possible for anyone to speak to anyone anywhere in the world. Today someone with a mobile phone can be a writer, and they are a dime a dozen – this one also being one of the dozens. In addition, even the uneducated know enough to use a mobile phone. To help them, the language of mobile communication has suitably abbreviated most clusters of words so that no more than a handful of letters are needed to communicate a whole paragraph. Both the reader and the writer seem to be speaking in code.
So how did Truth die? With so many writers vying for viewers' attention, it is necessary to make more outrageous statements to capture mind space. Since we are battered every day with trash, the resultant brain damage has reduced the reader's attention span to microseconds and completely eliminated the desire to verify. There is hardly any effort at testing the integrity of the statements, nor is there a perceived need. In addition, the constant desire to be the first to act as a relay station transmitting the alleged information from Whatsapp group to Whatsapp group overrides any thought of checking its credibility. Truth choked to death in such an environment as its lungs collapsed in the smog of misinformation that sounded implausible but was lapped up as gospel truth.
There was a pre-existing condition in India that had made this malady's impact more severe. Anyone who attains proficiency in films, writing or cricket is immediately welcomed as an expert in nuclear physics, global disarmament, climate change and geopolitical manoeuvrings. Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp forwards help us keep abreast of the pronouncements of such worthies in fields totally unrelated to their area of expertise.
Is there a cure? Not really, and it is not needed as we move from the reality of this world, into the metaverse, Truth will be what we want it to be. The virus that caused the death of Truth will have entered an endemic phase.
I am now a Positive Person
After holding out for almost 21 months, I fell prey to the virus now bearing the name of an obscure, rarely used Greek alphabet. Having been a student of science at some time and having been smothered nearly to death by classes in statistical thermodynamics, I prided myself on knowing most of the Greek alphabets. As a finance student, alphas and beta were almost bread and butter in later years. However, I often regarded them with deep suspicion. So when I first heard the term Omicron I thought it was something tiny, a near relative of the micron. When I realised that it was a full-fledged Greek letter in its own right and a variant of the Covid virus, that Omicron was replaced with “Omigod”.
When the alpha variant came out in 2020, all of us at home went into deep hibernation like polar bears used to. These days, I am told that they spend sleepless nights worrying that the ice under them will disappear in the middle of winter and find themselves in the cold, briny sea. The fact that members of the family were on the wrong side of 60 seemed to suggest that as a prudent course of action.
Life settled into a routine of daily needs from Big Basket and occasional needs from Amazon. No contact delivery was being preserved; we all felt safe. This continued as infection levels fell, and we were often chided by relatives and friends for being over-cautious. Then, at the end of 2021, just as we contemplated opening the doors and stepping out, a Greek alphabet struck again. We have no idea where it came from, but the household of 7 fell like 9 pins. Mercifully it was mild, and we are not sure what worked – the vaccine, the virus itself being mild, or good luck.
Some have suggested that we should see the positive side of this. Unfortunately, we were laid low just as we were getting ready for our third peg of the vaccine. Some have suggested that getting Omicron itself provides better immunity to Delta and other strains than the vaccine could have. I am not sure whether that is correct, as so much misinformation is flying around. The WHO deputy head has suggested that people should not seek omicron infection to avoid the booster.
Setting Up and Knocking Down Straw Men
One of the significant features of the modern world is the democratisation of communication. Today through electronic mediums and sites like Facebook, Twitter and blogs, to name a few, one can try to reach a larger audience. Sites like Facebook and Twitter are now for the 60+ generation, and there must be numerous other media that the younger generation use. In addition, the Internet has made publication democratic. Consequently, one sees books that are self-published without the benefit or interference of editors.
This access to a public communication space has many advantages and also many problems. The benefits are apparent, quick access to an audience, broad dissemination, particularly if you have a large following. Access to the medium is also widely available. Very different from the days of a printed newspaper or a book that would only be published after having gone through the rigours of various editing stages by people other than the writer. This particular blog is also an example of what I’m saying.
Out of some perverse desire to raise my blood pressure, I have set up my Internet page to open on MSN news. Quite a bit of the news is essentially shadow boxing between various celebrities or between the chatterati on Twitter and the star. The blurbs are attractive, so they distract when the page opens. Once read the comment and the fallout bring to mind, the bard’s famous words “…. Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Extended to the electronic medium, the nihilism or the meaninglessness of statements comes to mind. The addiction, unfortunately, is so strong that despite having been disappointed so many times, one still cannot cease glancing through unquotable quotes.
Three Decades of Liberalisation
One can argue till the cows come home about the merits and demerits of liberalisation. In some sense that discussion is of no great consequence since the opening up of the economy was forced on us by circumstances beyond our control. It is, however, a good idea to take a reality check, if nothing else to see if course corrections are necessary and possible. The economy as such has grown significantly and we now see ourselves as a lower middle-income country in the comity of nations. I had an occasion to look at NSE data on the number of companies listed on the exchange. I eschewed considering trading data because of my jaundiced belief that a substantial number of shares do not see daily trading in any significant volume. The NSE was considered mainly because the data was readily available on their site and also because it has decimated regional exchanges and also because it is in some sense the prime exchange in the country and at the forefront of exchange reforms.
In the first five years of its existence, the number of listed companies grew by 36.85%. That is not surprising considering that in numbers it actually grew only from 135 to 648 companies. In the next five years, reality struck and the growth tapered to 4.77% reaching a number of 818 companies. Considering that the first half of these five years covers the first tech bubble of 2000 this growth may be explained. The next five years saw a growth of 8.46%. This is the highest five-year growth rate ever achieved. This five year period ends just before the financial crisis of 2008. Between 2008 and 2011 the growth was a modest 5.09%. This annual rate had shrunk to 1.94% by 2015. In the last five years, the growth in companies listed on the National Stock Exchange has grown by a niggardly 2.19%. I do not dare to look at volume trading data for fear of having to reach for valium to calm myself.
The point that I would like to emphasise is that liberalisation and economic growth has not deepened our capital markets. We hear from a number of sources that investible surpluses exist in the financial system. The primary and secondary equity markets are supposed to be the engines for capital mobilisation. Any growth in the secondary market without concomitant growth in the primary market would I believe need understanding through further study and could be a recipe for another stock market bubble.
The Vanishing Informal Sector
The SBI study on the shrinking of the informal sector has been in the news these last few days. Indicators used to assess formalisation are:
- EPFO records – 3.66 million additions in 2021
- Registration of unorganised workers in the e-Sharm portal – 53 million
- Formalisation of cash usage (no numbers but value = Rs 1.2 lakh crores)
- Increased digital payments at petrol pumps (Rs 1.0 lakh crores)
The last two could be attributed to the pandemic, which created a massive move to non-cash payment methods. My vegetable vendor, who comes in the morning with his stock in a basket on his cycle, accepts Google Pay. To club him as a part of the formal sector would be misleading and cynical. I suspect that he accepts Google Pay not because he has suddenly seen the merits of a cashless economy but because his customers have neither the courage nor the patience to visit an ATM since the pandemic.
The current population of India is 1.38 billion. The CEIC data suggests that the current labour force participation rate is 46.3% (Dec 2020) – a drop of 3% over the previous year. A look at the month-wise data on the Ministry of Labour Website (Statistics about the schemes and programs of the Ministry | Ministry of Labour & Employment) seems to suggest that during the period April 2020 to October 2020, the number of contributing members to EPF has ranged from 38.4 million (April 2020) to 45.8 m in October 2020. The variations are pretty minor from May 2020 (42.6 m) to October 2020. An increase in EPF numbers is good news, but what is often not well reported is a substantial dropping off of numbers almost every month. For example, in October 2020, 177 million Unique Account Numbers were in existence (accounts with Aadhar seeding being 112.8 million) yet contributors were only 40% of those who had Aadhar seeding. Therefore, it may be helpful to interpret EPFO addition data with some caution. For instance, EPFO closed 7.1 million accounts between April and December 2020.
E-Shram is a very welcome initiative, but it is essential to remember that it is only a registration portal. The registered informal workers have access only to an accident insurance scheme of the government, which is also not yet operationalised. In the case of my vegetable vendor, if he registers on the E-Shram portal, he may get access to accident insurance. Still, his work of selling vegetables home to home, on a cycle, through rain or sun, can by no means be termed formal employment.
The aggregate of many schemes of insurance and pension covers about 68.9 crores. Registration does not imply utilisation – as seen with EPF data. Formal employment data is more reliable considering that 1% of the population pays income tax and 46.3% participate in the labour force.
We favour the formal sector over the informal on the premise that the former is more likely to be “decent work”. The UN General Assembly in 2015 outlined “Decent Work” and the pillars of decent work agenda. Employment creation, social protection, rights to work and social dialogue are the integral ingredients of the 2030 agenda. Looking at one aspect and that too accident insurance may not be enough.
Based on the definition of formalisation taken in the report, it could well be possible that the informal sector has shrunk to 20% or even 15%. The main question is whether that formalisation has changed workers’ income levels or access to basic rights. Looking at income taxpayers, the number of active EPF accounts and other broad indicators may provide a reality check to those who see too much in the SBI report.
How the Pandemic could change us
With both Moderna and Pfizer announcing recently that the pandemic will end in a year, it is a suitable time for us to speculate on what the world would be like post the pandemic. The impact of this pandemic has been different for different individuals. In the same vein, we can expect that the opening up post the pandemic will also be experienced differently by various individuals. For economic, social, and other considerations, many of us have already started leading a normal life with minimal precautions. The declining infection rate and herd immunity have enabled a vast majority to resume everyday life similar to before the pandemic.
It is almost sure that when this pandemic wanes, we are unlikely to go back to life before 2020. However, there have been valuable experiences for segments of the working world that are likely to stay with us post-Covid 19. For example, working from home has been meaningful learning. Fifteen years ago, when an organization I was working with faced severe floor space pressure due to its rising manpower, we instituted a practice of working from home at least one day a week, by rotation. It was a novel idea then, but the last 18 months have made it necessary for specific industries where working from home is feasible. Travel, tourism, hospitality, restaurant entertainment and similar businesses have been adversely affected. These industries typically are large employers of human resources.
Government of India data for the first quarter of 2021-2022 suggests a decline in gross value added of 22.4% in 2020-21. The worst affected sectors are construction (49.5%) and trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting (48.1%). Both these sectors are large employers of human resources, and it must follow that economic distress amongst the workforce in these sectors should be very high. As we recover from the pandemic, it remains to be seen whether these sectors will bounce back to pre-pandemic robustness. With increasing emphasis on working from home, declining purchasing power in the salaried class and general inhibition to commit large outflow of funds could result in the construction sector taking a beating for some more time to come.
Risk perceptions both amongst travellers and authorities in host countries could put a dampener on international tourism. In addition, international travellers are unlikely to flock to India soon because of risk perceptions and uncertainties attached to the available data related to the intensity of the pandemic.
With more people staying at home, the gig economy has grown substantially in certain metropolitan cities. This growth has offered employment to a section of the workforce. Agriculture too seems to have increased by 3.5% over the previous year. This growth would indeed be welcome since a substantial part of the population survives on agriculture. The economy is now leaning on the sector neglected systematically by succeeding governments over the last many decades.
Online classes so thoroughly hated by teachers, and rightly so, does open up an opportunity for overhauling our education system. It is worth exploring whether learning can occur in two parts. First, one that requires rote learning can be through technology. Second, classroom interaction would focus on understanding the limits of knowledge. The socialisation of the child and its interactions relationship with nature and others would also be an important development in the physical school. Teachers will have to make substantial adjustments to their understanding and how they interact with children. One desirable outcome will, I am afraid, elude us. We had reached a stage when examinations, particularly those in 10th and 12th classes, had become larger than life. Veritable mountains for children to climb. I am sure we will bounce back, and their importance will be larger than life soon, negating any gains that we could have from the shock the pandemic has given to the education system.
Why I Don’t Watch TV News – A Rant
I have for long believed that Indian Television News except for a small minuscule number of channels is unedifying for the human mind. I, therefore, stopped watching TV news about five years ago. (Not that they are losing sleep on the loss of a customer like me.) Since the soaps were even more destructive to the mind, we decided to restrict the cable connection only to those channels my mother-in-law would like to see. The TV, therefore, is firmly ensconced in
her room.
Coverage of news and editorial or analysis should be separated. News should be covered in an authentic non-judgemental fashion. The role of the correspondent is to ferret out information and be the eyes and ears of society. The job of the brain, interpreting that news, is that of the editor or the analyst. A reporters job requires very different skills from those of an editor. Identifying newsworthy opportunities and being at the right place at the right time requires deep connections, an ear to the ground and a network of people who will generate leads. The editor responds to the news by drawing generalities and lessons from events. Commenting on events involves comparisons
across time and multiple events at the same time. Also, editors often use lenses that are coloured by their worldview. If you are watching Fox News, the editorial slant is one way if you happen to watch CNN the bias would be in
another direction. It is interesting that unlike newspapers there is no real editor in TV news. Some anchors play the role of the editor and also the part of the news mixer. Presumably, an editor is sitting behind the camera. If that is so the effectiveness is questionable as star anchors tend to run away with the programming.
Should one blame the anchors? Probably not like governments we get the anchors we deserve. In a country where research and reliance on facts are perfunctory at best, one should expect nothing else. Also, we all love a nice tamasha with all its loudness and hyperbole.
A Doctor Who Does Nobody any Good (9/9/2020)
The American Presidential elections have been like a bad play in the theatre of the absurd. A term coined by Martin Esslin it covers a wide range of plays and “some characteristics coincide in many of the plays: broad comedy, often similar to vaudeville, mixed with horrific or tragic images; characters caught in hopeless situations forced to do repetitive or meaningless actions; dialogue full of clichés, wordplay, and nonsense; plots that are cyclical or absurdly expansive; either a parody or dismissal of realism.” Trump and a significant number of Republican Party honchos have been the major cast.
In all this, there was a small sideshow, a lot like the porter scene in Macbeth. Porters and Fools in Shakespearean plays often say much about the world the audience lives in. The article in Wall Street Journal by essayist Joseph Epstein provided some gratuitous advice to Jill Biden that she drop the Dr. from her name since her doctorate is only in Education and not in medicine. That is the kind of remark one would associate with an ill-informed, under-educated, Trump supporter, not a business journal that aspires to be serious and influential. Not only is it in bad taste one wonders whether Epstein would have been so flippant if he were talking of a male scientist social or otherwise. The remark smacks of gender bias in addition to being uncouth.
It took me back to my salad days when I was green and used to lap up all the jokes that were page fillers in Readers Digest. A synopsis of a joke has a Harvard economics professor overhearing his housekeeper answering the phone with the words “… he is not the kind of Doctor who does anyone any good.”
The term doctor was first used in the fourteenth century by neither the over-educated nor the healers – at least not of the kind that heals bodies. Instead, eminent theologians holding a special seal of approval of the Roman Catholic church as people who have the skills to talk about the doctrine of the church were called doctors. The term evolving from the Latin word docere “to teach”. By the end of the 14th century, the term was applied to someone who had passed all the degrees of a faculty in a university and was thus empowered to teach it. The term was not commonly used for practitioners of the medical profession till the end of the 16th century. A physician was the term of choice that possibly evolved from physic meaning treatment or remedy in French (Latin – physicum or physicus).
The title Doctor was first awarded to Doctor of Divinity (DD) and LLD (Legume Doctor) or Doctor of Laws. PhDs and Physicians started being called doctors in the 14th century with the term being widely used for Physicians by the 16th. Interestingly while physicians and surgeons are addressed as doctors the world over, in Britain surgeons were addressed as Mister as late as the start of the 21st century.
Many academics do not use the title doctor because they are often referred to as professors a term that is venerable enough. Many who are not professors do use the tern doctor if they are scientists without necessarily being medical doctors. In Germany, one may find many Doktors who are engineering heads of various companies.
In India, we use the term doctor even if the title is honorary. Tamil Nadu chief ministers have all been doctors though they may never have played that role. Dr Manmohan Singh was a genuine PhD though some today may believe that he did not do anyone any good forgetting the opening up of the economy in 1991 and the survival of the global crises of 2008 with little permanent scars.
Tele-medicine a possible panacea for India (26/8/20)
One is back after a long hiatus of over eighteen months. I guess one just dried up not that either I or the world was standing still. In fact, since the first quarter of this year, we have been in the grips of a pandemic the scale of which has been unprecedented. One was suddenly reminded of the Ted talk in April 2015, by Bill Gates, where he predicted that the next crisis would be a bug and Governments around the world are unprepared. The tragedy is compounded by very poor leadership in developed and developing countries. A small and compact country like New Zealand, highly disciplined like South Korea and a country with surprisingly enlightened leadership like Ethiopia at this stage seem to have done well. Interestingly they have all adopted different measures in keeping with their economic capabilities. In India reports from the ground seem to suggest that Kerala a populous state has done well and anecdotal experience in Bangalore seems to suggest that Karnataka is doing a lot of good work. One interesting fall out of the pandemic is the growth of telemedicine.
Telemedicine seems to have caught on. I was a sceptic having turned down an opportunity to consult my doctor through remote access. Eschewing the computer and the phone I undertook the hour-long drive to the hospital, went through the process of registration (designed by a management expert with an evil sense of humour I am sure) and then waited to see the doctor. The entire exercise from home to home took the best part of 4 hours. In the past months, my mother-in-law who is all of ninety years fixes her appointment the day before for a fixed time in the day and finishes her consultation in fifteen minutes.
Developments in the testing industry has seen a hub and spoke model evolve where the collection of samples is diffused (either at home or in collection centres in the community) while the analysis is centralised. This model enables substantial investment in the automation of analysis in a viable manner. Rapid growth in logistics, another outcome I am sure that the Covid virus did not intend, has helped this hub and spoke model to emerge.
The health services model could be divided into three tiers. The point of contact could be the General Practitioner located at the smallest viable unit most probably a block. This GP in turn would have contact with Auxiliary Health Workers who would be located in villages. The secondary level would be the district hospitals and the tertiary unit would be the apex hospital which would cater to a number of districts. The GP, district hospital and the apex hospital would be on a telecommunication network which would allow for telemedicine to operate. All testing and medication would be coordinated by the GP while the district and apex hospital will focus on providing support for the GP and for handling complex cases which require hospitalisation and or surgery. The auxiliary health workers network would be used by the GP to ensure the last-mile delivery of services to the patient.
2018 data put out by the Ministry of Health seems to suggest that the central and state governments spend about 1.28% of our GDP on health care. Anther 2.12 per cent is spent privately by those who can afford which raises our investment to about 3.4%. This is about a third of investment in health in OECD countries. Public investment in health in China (2.9% of GDP) and Brazil (3.9%) are way ahead of us. Using telemedicine along with a doubling of investment in public health could go a long way in improving health services in the country. It would also make health services more accessible to a larger segment of the population particularly the economically marginalised.
Exercheia – The home of dissent in Athens (26/8/20)
Spent a morning, a couple of years ago, in Exercheia the neighbourhood which is popular with anarchists, anti-fascists, socialist, artists and intellectuals live. Established in 1880 or there about it has been the hub of dissent and protest over the years.
The images on the wall are very evocative and though the language is unfamiliar one gets a sense of the feelings. A walk along the various roads taking in the large colourful cries of rebellion was a pleasant experience made better by the nice weather.
Talking Breads is a well known Fast Food restaurant, unfortunately we came to know about its reputation after returning to India, besides it was too early in the morning for a burger which apparently is very good.
It is also home to migrants from many countries Bangladesh being one of them.
Monsters in the Dark (26/8/20)
Bangalore Little Theatre has adapted Siddhartha Mukherjee’s Emperor of All Maladies into a play “Monsters in the Dark”. Adapting any book is a challenge and adapting this particular book possibly more so, in view of the the medical aspects of oncology and the emotional aspects of the malady. Written by Kavya Srinivasan the play is directed by Deepak Mote and Murtuza Khetty.
I read the book in 2011 having come across it when my father was undergoing treatment for cancer. My reason for reading the book was to understand the ailment better but what I found was a revetting narrative about the history of cancer diagnosis and treatment, an overview of efforts against the disease up to the turn of the last century and several deeply poignant human interest stories. The play tries to touch on all three, an overambitious attempt. It is, however, a great condensed version for those who have not read or do not plan to read the book.
Three stories, from the book, stick in my mind. The story of Carla Reed, Jimmy and the chimney sweeps. The first and the last are dealt with in the play.
Jimmy was the mascot for one of the first and most successful fund raising efforts for the treatment of cancer among children. Einer Gustafson a twelve year old patient in Dr. Farber’s Children’s Cancer Research Foundation was selected, in 1948, to be the mascot of the fund raising effort. Leading players of the Boston Braves, Jimmy’s favourite baseball team, visited him and gave souvenirs all of which was captured in a radio talk show and broadcast repeatedly to raise funds. His short role in the radio show completed, he was soon forgotten, in any case his condition was known to be fatal. It is a surprise to see him traced out in 1998 not only having survived but having a successful career as a truck driver.
The tale of Carla Reed’s determination, effort, isolation and grit is haunting. The school teacher, mother of three, undertakes a physically gruelling and long commute to the hospital for treatment over months. The toll on the family and other care-givers is well documented in the book. The treatment is captured, the human side of the story does not make as much of an impact.
The story of chimney sweeps, young boys who cleaned chimneys in the 18th century is mentioned in the play. Mostly orphans, often as young as 4 years they were made to clean flues less than forty eight inches in diameter. Soot is a carcinogen and most were prone to chimney sweep’s carcinoma. This was in addition to other dangers like falling, getting burnt and asphyxiating.
The book effortlessly moves between human interest stories, the history of cancer treatment and the science behind the effort. One telling narrative in the book is that the search for cures, for various cancers, was not quite scientific till quite late into the 20th century. Flush with victory from World War II, it was believed in America that a war against cancer was eminently winnable. Substantial funding and interest in the socio-political space lead to various possible cures being thrown at the disease. The traditional approach of trying to identify causes and seeking cures was uncomfortably slow for a society at war. The play in some measure captures those efforts and the impatience among researchers.
The play is supported by St. John’s and Tata Memorial and is an important way of bringing awareness of cancer and the efforts to deal with it to the lay audience.